/blog/ Recent content in Blog of Petro-Logistics en-us Tue, 30 Sep 2025 22:11:03 +0000 /blog/posts/45-years-of-precision-celebrating-petro-logistics-legacy-and-future/ Tue, 30 Sep 2025 22:11:03 +0000 /blog/posts/45-years-of-precision-celebrating-petro-logistics-legacy-and-future/ ]]> This year marks a remarkable milestone in our story - the 45th anniversary of Petro-Logistics. What began in 1980 with Conrad Gerber’s vision to bring clarity to opaque oil markets has grown into a company trusted worldwide for independence, precision, and integrity. For over four decades, Petro-Logistics has helped governments, institutions, and market participants see oil markets as they truly are. Every cargo tracked reduces uncertainty, exposes reality, and builds trust in an industry that often resists transparency. /blog/posts/the-evolution-of-iraqs-basrah-crude-grades/ Thu, 28 Aug 2025 23:24:38 +0000 /blog/posts/the-evolution-of-iraqs-basrah-crude-grades/ ]]> [To read this post with more numbers and detail, clients can click here for the full note and potential clients may contact us here for a free two-month trial with no obligations.] Petro-Logistics’ cargo level API information for southern Iraqi exports shows that while Basrah Medium and Heavy exports have remained elevated volumetrically, stable quality remains elusive. Initially comprised solely of the Basrah Light grade, the Basrah complex of exports saw the introduction of a second grade in 2015 (Basrah Heavy) then a third grade in 2020 (Basrah Medium) before the removal of Basrah Light from international markets by January 2022. /blog/posts/every-tanker-every-trend-in-one-place-the-petro-logistics-crude-tanker-data-hub/ Fri, 03 Jan 2025 10:04:52 +0000 /blog/posts/every-tanker-every-trend-in-one-place-the-petro-logistics-crude-tanker-data-hub/ ]]> If you are interested in a free trial of the crude Tanker Data Hub, please contact our sales team here. Petro-Logistics has partnered with data visualization platform Oilytics (oilytics.co) to offer the ultimate tool for tracking all of our crude export data in one place. The Tanker Data Hub is the most comprehensive tool for macro- or micro-level viewing and manipulation of all our tanker-by-tanker data for crude oil, condensate, and upgraded crude oil. /blog/posts/new-fsu-crude-and-products-dashboard-from-petro-logistics-and-oilytics/ Wed, 23 Oct 2024 02:02:51 +0000 /blog/posts/new-fsu-crude-and-products-dashboard-from-petro-logistics-and-oilytics/ ]]> If you are interested in a free trial of any of our dashboards please contact our sales team here or email us at sales@petro-logistics.com Petro-Logistics has partnered with data visualization platform Oilytics (oilytics.co) to offer a new set of web-based dashboards to easily and quickly draw out analytical insights from our industry-standard tanker tracking data. The latest tool is our FSU Crude and Products Exports dashboard. The FSU dashboard is updated daily from our latest tanker tracking data and has data for all the countries Petro-Logistics covers in the region. /blog/posts/2024-versus-2020-libyan-oil-sector-disruption-dynamics/ Tue, 22 Oct 2024 18:06:05 +0000 /blog/posts/2024-versus-2020-libyan-oil-sector-disruption-dynamics/ ]]> In September 2024, Libyan crude oil exports fell to the lowest since September 2020, when Libya faced a prolonged period of disruptions. This time around, the issue only lasted about six weeks. Disruptions started in early August when General Haftar called for a blockade at the El Sharara field following his son’s indictment in Spain, the home-country of Repsol which is one of the operators of the complex. After the firing of the head of the central bank by the Tripoli government around 26 August, General Haftar’s government in Benghazi asked his supporters to suspend activities at all oil facilities, including ports and fields. /blog/posts/beyond-war-could-sanctions-bite-iran-harder/ Thu, 10 Oct 2024 02:01:32 +0000 /blog/posts/beyond-war-could-sanctions-bite-iran-harder/ ]]> As the possibility of war looms between Iran and Israel, questions have also been raised about whether a renewed push to tighten sanctions could reduce Iranian crude exports regardless of whether war breaks out. The risk is China-centric as the country has served as the key outlet for Iranian oil. Iranian crude exports to China have steadily grown since the Biden Administration took office, from 0.7 mb/d in 2021 to 1. /blog/posts/celebrating-44-years-of-petro-logistics-innovating-the-future-of-oil-market-intelligence/ Thu, 29 Aug 2024 15:41:51 +0000 /blog/posts/celebrating-44-years-of-petro-logistics-innovating-the-future-of-oil-market-intelligence/ ]]> As Petro-Logistics marks its 44th anniversary on September 3, we’re not just looking back at our achievements, we’re focused on what’s next. With decades of expertise in tanker tracking and oil flow analytics, we continue to push boundaries with exciting new tools and coverage on the way so our clients can stay ahead of the competition in an increasingly complex market. A Legacy of Trust and Precision For over four decades, Petro-Logistics has been a trusted source of the most accurate, actionable data on global oil flows. /blog/posts/positive-developments-for-west-african-crude-supply/ Thu, 01 Aug 2024 12:08:41 +0000 /blog/posts/positive-developments-for-west-african-crude-supply/ ]]> In light of multiple positive developments in West African crude oil supply over recent months which Petro-Logistics has reported in various Quick Alerts, we thought it worthwhile to summarize them in a single place. The key developments are: Niger exported its first crude oil cargo in May via Benin, the new heavy sweet Meleck grade. Senegal exported its first crude oil cargo in July, the new medium sour Sangomar grade. Nigeria launched its first new grade of 2024 with extra light Utapate. /blog/posts/a-rapid-ramp-up-for-the-dangote-refinery/ Tue, 30 Jul 2024 14:17:32 +0000 /blog/posts/a-rapid-ramp-up-for-the-dangote-refinery/ ]]> [To read this post with more numbers and detail, clients can click here for the full note and potential clients may contact us here for a free two-month trial with no obligations.] Since first oil was delivered to the newly built Dangote refinery for line and tank-fill in the period December 2023 to February 2024, arriving feedstock volumes have steadily increased, barring a drop in May. Initially run exclusively on Nigerian grades, the refinery started importing WTI barrels in late 1Q24. /blog/posts/new-americas-exports-dashboard-from-petro-logistics-and-oilytics/ Thu, 25 Jul 2024 14:40:48 +0000 /blog/posts/new-americas-exports-dashboard-from-petro-logistics-and-oilytics/ ]]> If you are interested in a free trial of any of our dashboards please contact our sales team here or email us at sales@petro-logistics.com Petro-Logistics has partnered with data visualization platform Oilytics (oilytics.co) to offer a new set of web-based dashboards to easily and quickly draw out analytical insights from our industry-standard tanker tracking data. The latest tool is our Americas Crude and Condensate Exports dashboard. The Americas dashboard is updated daily from our latest tanker tracking data and has data for all the countries Petro-Logistics covers in the region. /blog/posts/new-middle-east-exports-dashboard-from-petro-logistics-and-oilytics/ Thu, 25 Jul 2024 14:19:01 +0000 /blog/posts/new-middle-east-exports-dashboard-from-petro-logistics-and-oilytics/ ]]> If you are interested in a free trial of any of our dashboards please contact our sales team here or email us at sales@petro-logistics.com Petro-Logistics has partnered with data visualization platform Oilytics (oilytics.co) to offer a new set of web-based dashboards to easily and quickly draw out analytical insights from our industry-standard tanker tracking data. The latest tool is our Middle East Crude and Condensate Exports dashboard. The Middle East dashboard is updated daily from our latest tanker tracking data and has data for all major OPEC and Non-OPEC Middle Eastern crude exporting countries. /blog/posts/the-new-africa-exports-dashboard-from-petro-logistics-and-oilytics/ Thu, 18 Jul 2024 12:11:55 +0000 /blog/posts/the-new-africa-exports-dashboard-from-petro-logistics-and-oilytics/ ]]> If you are interested in a free trial of any of our dashboards please contact our sales team here or email us at sales@petro-logistics.com Petro-Logistics has partnered with data visualization platform Oilytics (oilytics.co) to offer a new set of web-based dashboards to easily and quickly draw out analytical insights from our industry-standard tanker tracking data. The latest tool is our Africa Crude and Condensate Exports dashboard. The Africa dashboard is updated daily from our latest tanker tracking data and has data for all major OPEC and Non-OPEC African crude exporting countries. /blog/posts/taking-the-long-view-opec-plans-unwinding-of-voluntary-cuts/ Sat, 06 Jul 2024 14:13:37 +0000 /blog/posts/taking-the-long-view-opec-plans-unwinding-of-voluntary-cuts/ ]]> OPEC+ announced its official production targets for 2025, with basically no change versus 2024, except for the UAE that will benefit from a progressive 300 kb/d increase from January to September 2025 (+33 kb/d each month) to reach a target production level of 3.519 mb/d, which is 19 kb/d above the latest official UAE baseline from which products cuts have been calculated. [To read more, clients can click here and potential clients may contact us here for a free two-month trial with no obligations. /blog/posts/data-dashboards-a-new-web-based-visualization-tool-from-petro-logistics-and-oilytics/ Sat, 29 Jun 2024 11:57:32 +0000 /blog/posts/data-dashboards-a-new-web-based-visualization-tool-from-petro-logistics-and-oilytics/ ]]> If you are interested in a free trial of any of the web dashboards discussed below, please contact our sales team here. Petro-Logistics has partnered with data visualization platform Oilytics (oilytics.co) to offer a new set of tools to easily and quickly draw out analytical insights from our industry-standard tanker tracking and oil balances data. The sheer volume of Petro-Logistics data can sometimes overwhelm, so these new web-based dashboard tools make it simple to manipulate and visualize the data in unique ways using key charts, tables, filters, and download options. /blog/posts/product-focus-the-opec-production-monitor-opm/ Thu, 06 Jun 2024 21:10:57 +0000 /blog/posts/product-focus-the-opec-production-monitor-opm/ ]]> If you are interested in a free trial of the OPM, please contact our sales team here. The OPEC+ Production Monitor is Petro-Logistics’ leading and most-read publication. It has been relied upon for over 40 years by the industry as the benchmark for OPEC+ supply and compliance, with the OPEC Secretariat itself among the hundreds of subscribers to this publication. The report incorporates systematic analysis and insight into crude supply and exports on a country-by-country basis. /blog/posts/a-strong-start-to-2024-for-chinese-crude-imports-1/ Wed, 05 Jun 2024 18:54:03 +0000 /blog/posts/a-strong-start-to-2024-for-chinese-crude-imports-1/ ]]> [To read this post with more numbers and detail, clients can click here for the full note and potential clients may contact us here for a free two-month trial with no obligations.] The strong performance of Chinese crude oil imports at the beginning of 2024, marked by the highest-ever first quarter, persisted into late May. When looking at Chinese crude imports, Petro-Logistics considers arrivals into China from countries within our coverage, which includes OPEC+, West Africa, US Gulf Coast and former OPEC members (Angola, Ecuador and Qatar). /blog/posts/another-new-west-african-refinery-ghanas-sentuo/ Wed, 15 May 2024 22:08:17 +0000 /blog/posts/another-new-west-african-refinery-ghanas-sentuo/ ]]> All eyes in the market have been on the giant Dangote refinery but there is another new refinery in West Africa which has attracted much less attention: the Chinese-built Sentuo refinery in Ghana. The facility started operations in January 2024 and will have a final capacity of close to 120 kb/d. According to the Ghanaian ministry of energy, the refinery was running at 30 kb/d in March 2024. According to the IEA, Ghanaian product demand in 2021 averaged around 82 kb/d. /blog/posts/temporary-uae-export-jump-points-to-bigger-changes-1/ Thu, 07 Mar 2024 20:31:33 +0000 /blog/posts/temporary-uae-export-jump-points-to-bigger-changes-1/ ]]> January and February have seen a large jump in UAE crude exports, increasing 5% versus 4Q23 to the highest level since July 2022. The main factor has been the partial Ruwais refinery maintenance in 1Q24. This has caused exports of the higher quality crude the plant normally runs to shoot up. January and February have also seen the highest UAE internal crude transfers on record. All of it has been offshore crude being brought into Ruwais, with inflows actually beginning at lower levels in 3Q of last year. /blog/posts/2023-record-year-for-chinese-crude-imports/ Tue, 30 Jan 2024 16:52:33 +0000 /blog/posts/2023-record-year-for-chinese-crude-imports/ ]]> Chinese imports from all the regions covered by Petro-Logistics saw a volumetric increase in 2023. Chinese customs showed an 11% yearly rise, whilst Petro-Logistics’ data recorded a 10% increase. The top 4 crude sources in 2023 were Russia at 19% of the total, Saudi Arabia at 15%, Iran at 12%, and Iraq at 11%. Russia’s number one position came as volumes rose 37% y/y, mostly via seaborne arrivals, which rose to a record 1. /blog/posts/black-sea-on-edge-disruption-risk-reaches-novorossiysk/ Fri, 22 Sep 2023 18:26:10 +0000 /blog/posts/black-sea-on-edge-disruption-risk-reaches-novorossiysk/ ]]> Two recent incidents at Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk have highlighted that the conflict in Ukraine has elevated the risk of disruptions to Russian and FSU oil exports. For 2023 year-to-date, Novorossiysk (counting the segments fed by both Transneft and CPC pipelines) is the source of 2.0 mb/d FSU crude oil, and another 331 kb/d of products. The first incident on 4 August involved a Ukrainian explosive sea drone damaging the Russian navy vessel Olenegorsky Gornyak near the port. /blog/posts/russia-to-the-east-sino-india-seesaw/ Mon, 21 Aug 2023 13:12:31 +0000 /blog/posts/russia-to-the-east-sino-india-seesaw/ ]]> As highlighted in the Petro-Logistics Quick Alert of August 4, July saw Russia send more crude to China than India for the second month in a row. Based on load dates, exports to China including pipeline, direct seaborne, and STS were 212 kb/d higher than to India. While actual Indian imports in July hit a record high of 2247 kb/d, they will be coming down soon given the transit lag from export to import data. /blog/posts/russia-loading-activity-update-26-jan-2023/ Mon, 30 Jan 2023 15:05:12 +0000 /blog/posts/russia-loading-activity-update-26-jan-2023/ ]]> Petro-Logistics is the market’s leading data provider on Russian oil flows, putting its clients in a position of knowledge and awareness as changes occur. The below report was distributed to clients on 26 January 2023. Please request a trial or contact our Sales Team for access. Seaborne exports of Russian crude continue to increase as Transneft redirects Druzhba barrels to the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, while also drawing on stocks accumulated in Q4. /blog/posts/russia-loading-activity-update-12-january-2023/ Tue, 17 Jan 2023 19:25:27 +0000 /blog/posts/russia-loading-activity-update-12-january-2023/ ]]> The below report has been released as a blog after being distributed to subscribers on 12 January 2023. Please contact our Sales Team (sales@petro-logistics.com) to receive this report each week. Petro-Logistics is the market’s leading data provider on Russian oil flows. Big changes are occurring as a result of the EU Import Ban on Russian crude & products. Petro-Logistics puts its clients in a position of knowledge and awareness as these changes occur. /blog/posts/full-up-indias-capacity-for-more-russia-oil/ Sun, 27 Nov 2022 16:34:05 +0000 /blog/posts/full-up-indias-capacity-for-more-russia-oil/ ]]> The summer months saw a new baseline established for Indian crude imports from Russia, with volumes approaching 900 kb/d in the June-August period. This compares to a mere 11 kb/d in the three months prior to the war. While the numbers are volatile month to month, a short-term equilibrium has likely been reached, as the main factors affecting tradeflows have become clear to the market. Though this will soon change again as shall be discussed later in this blog post. /blog/posts/the-indian-oil-bridge-between-russia-and-its-sanctioners/ Tue, 30 Aug 2022 10:25:27 +0000 /blog/posts/the-indian-oil-bridge-between-russia-and-its-sanctioners/ ]]> Since the invasion of Ukraine in February, Indian refiners have taken advantage of steep discounts to make the country one of the largest importers of Russian oil. There has been speculation about the possibility that Russian oil processed at Indian export refineries could be flowing as products to countries which have sanctioned Russia. It is very difficult in practical terms to identify if precise oil molecules from Russia are landing in sanctioning countries. /blog/posts/annual-increase-in-chinese-imports-driven-by-iranian-barrels/ Wed, 02 Mar 2022 19:51:43 +0000 /blog/posts/annual-increase-in-chinese-imports-driven-by-iranian-barrels/ ]]> Crude and condensate imports into China for countries covered by Petro-Logistics1 saw a slower rate of increase in 2021 that during 2020, up by only 1% versus +4% from a lower base the previous year. Total crude imports (including FSU pipeline and Iranian indirect barrels) averaged 8.268 mb/d in 2021. Chinese imports started 2021 at a strong pace, with Q1’21 reaching a record 8.926 mb/d. However, the next two quarters were below 2020 levels, with the year ending on a higher note, at 8. /blog/posts/basrah-medium-iraqs-new-flagship-grade-as-basrah-light-stops-being-exported/ Wed, 26 Jan 2022 14:56:26 +0000 /blog/posts/basrah-medium-iraqs-new-flagship-grade-as-basrah-light-stops-being-exported/ ]]> A new year and a new change to the Basrah oil complex: The Iraqi State Organisation for the Marketing of Oil, SOMO, has announced to its term customers that it will not provide them with Basrah Light barrels from January 2022 onwards, with the Minister explaining that the barrels will go to the domestic market instead. SOMO had previously reshuffled its offerings with the introduction of a new grade, Basrah Medium, from January 2021. /blog/posts/basrah-medium-the-new-leader-of-the-iraqi-crude-pack/ Mon, 18 Oct 2021 19:50:41 +0000 /blog/posts/basrah-medium-the-new-leader-of-the-iraqi-crude-pack/ ]]> Introduction In January 2021, SOMO, the Iraqi State Oil Marketing Organisation, launched a new grade, Basrah Medium, to remedy issues around high variations in the quality of Basrah Light. With its API set at 27.9 degrees and a 3% sulphur content, Basrah Medium was predicted by Petro-Logistics to become the largest grade exported from southern Iraq1. After nine months on the market, Basrah Medium has indeed become the top Iraqi grade in terms of volume. /blog/posts/us-imports-more-waf-fsu-at-the-expense-of-middle-eastern-barrels/ Tue, 14 Sep 2021 15:42:02 +0000 /blog/posts/us-imports-more-waf-fsu-at-the-expense-of-middle-eastern-barrels/ ]]> At 1.671 mb/d for the countries covered by Petro-Logistics, which include the 25 countries in OPEC+, West Africa, Colombia and Ecuador, the first seven months of 2021 have seen fairly stable crude imports into the USA, with only a slight 99 kb/d drop compared to the full year of 2020. However, there has been a modest shift in the origins of the imports, with Middle Eastern crudes declining while African and FSU grades increased. /blog/posts/weaker-chinese-imports-in-q2-2021/ Wed, 21 Jul 2021 15:48:13 +0000 /blog/posts/weaker-chinese-imports-in-q2-2021/ ]]> Whilst the first quarter of 2021 saw strong Chinese crude imports, the second quarter was marked by a significant reduction for the countries covered by Petro-Logistics’ tracking. The average of the second quarter stood at around 6.557 mb/d, versus Q1’21 at 7.634 mb/d and Q2’20 at 7.743 mb/d. The fall in imports was from all regions but proportionally more from the FSU and the Americas. For Middle Eastern barrels, the picture is mixed with some countries seeing a surge quarter-on-quarter, in particular Iran, which benefited from strong Chinese demand in the first half of the year. /blog/posts/strong-opec-compliance-in-june/ Wed, 21 Jul 2021 13:33:24 +0000 /blog/posts/strong-opec-compliance-in-june/ ]]> According to Petro-Logistics’ data and its own assessment of compliance1, the group, comprised of 10 OPEC members and 9 non-OPEC partners (since the July 2020 withdrawal of Mexico), experienced stronger compliance in June at 93% thanks to improved OPEC discipline. Average compliance for the length of the agreement (May 2020-June 2021) currently stands at 84%. The improved compliance performance was helped in June by a 350 kb/d monthly increase in the production ceiling versus May cut levels, with a further 441 kb/d easing of cuts in July to arrive at a total reduction of 6. /blog/posts/strong-start-to-2021-for-chinese-imports/ Tue, 13 Apr 2021 19:22:51 +0000 /blog/posts/strong-start-to-2021-for-chinese-imports/ ]]> The first quarter of 2021 continued to bring new records for Chinese crude oil imports for the countries covered by Petro-Logistics’ tracking. The average of the quarter stood at almost 8 mb/d, versus a Q4’20 average just above 7 mb/d, despite the fact that the first quarter of the year is normally lower due to the Chinese Lunar New Year. The surge so far in 2021 has supported some regions’ imports. /blog/posts/basrah-medium-a-strong-contender-for-the-chinese-market/ Tue, 05 Jan 2021 13:40:12 +0000 /blog/posts/basrah-medium-a-strong-contender-for-the-chinese-market/ ]]> After years of issues around the high variation in quality for Basrah Light, SOMO has created a new grade, Basrah Medium. Based on Petro-Logistics’ analysis of the past three years’ Basrah Light cargoes, the new Basrah Medium grade, introduced in January 2021, could become the largest exported grade out of Iraq, displacing Basrah Light, which will become a more marginal grade alongside Basrah Heavy in terms of volume. Most Basrah Light Barrels Fall Within the Spectrum of Basrah Medium Traditionally in Iraq, southern fields have exported their crude as Basrah Light. /blog/posts/indian-crude-when-the-chips-are-down/ Wed, 11 Nov 2020 09:26:06 +0000 /blog/posts/indian-crude-when-the-chips-are-down/ ]]> Indian refiners have experienced some of the greatest whiplashes in demand (foreign and domestic) and refinery runs in the world due to Covid-19. Both the collapse in 2Q and now the late-year rebound have been intense. This naturally raises the question: when the refiners must decide what crude supplies to cut or keep, what do they choose? It must first be understood that there is a large divide in the Indian refining sector between state companies such as IOC and the private behemoths of Nayara Energy and Reliance. /blog/posts/the-untouchable-saudi-grade/ Tue, 28 Jul 2020 06:58:37 +0000 /blog/posts/the-untouchable-saudi-grade/ ]]> When Saudi Arabia decides to increase or decrease production as part of its OPEC strategy, the market is generally aware that Arab Light as the highest volume grade and Arab Heavy as the lowest value grade are key swing barrels. What goes less noticed though is that in the midst of the wild production swings, loadings of one key grade barely budge: Arab Medium. Structurally, Arab Medium is the second largest export stream after Arab Light. /blog/posts/opec-closer-to-full-compliance-in-june/ Wed, 08 Jul 2020 15:28:32 +0000 /blog/posts/opec-closer-to-full-compliance-in-june/ ]]> Following the adoption of an agreement between OPEC and their 10 non-OPEC partners, the participating countries had set a production cutting target of 9.7 mb/d for May and June 2020 versus October 2018 levels of around 43.9 mb/d. According to Petro-Logistics’ data and its own assessment of compliance, the group came short on its promise, with a total compliance level of 78% for June (versus 62% in May), bringing the group’s average compliance for May-June at 70%. /blog/posts/russian-opec-compliance-dividing-the-deprivation/ Thu, 25 Jun 2020 16:12:14 +0000 /blog/posts/russian-opec-compliance-dividing-the-deprivation/ ]]> As a result of the most recent OPEC+ supply constraint agreement, Russia agreed to reduce crude production to 8.5 mb/d (condensate was excluded from OPEC+ compliance as of January 2020) after having run at around 10.6 mb/d this year through April. May saw this target nearly reached with production falling by 1.881 mb/d versus April to a total of 8.803 mb/d. But how were those volume reductions spread throughout the system? /blog/posts/china-continue-to-see-record-import-levels-in-june/ Tue, 23 Jun 2020 19:35:20 +0000 /blog/posts/china-continue-to-see-record-import-levels-in-june/ ]]> According to Petro-Logistics’ tracking, Chinese oil imports are stronger than ever, with weekly levels about 2 mb/d above the same weeks last year. Imports from all regions but particularly from the Middle East are pushing arrivals up. The average for the first 21 days of June are around 9.7 mb/d for OPEC+ and US imports. However, imports are slowly coming off their peak levels and should be lower in July, with less intake from the Middle East and the FSU, partially offset by record US arrivals. /blog/posts/us-balance-high-middle-eastern-imports-versus-record-exports-to-china-in-may/ Wed, 17 Jun 2020 15:53:50 +0000 /blog/posts/us-balance-high-middle-eastern-imports-versus-record-exports-to-china-in-may/ ]]> Since March, the US has been facing the Covid-19 pandemic, with states in more or less strict lockdown. Those measures have strongly affected US oil demand, whilst the collapse of oil prices has put many rigs offline, especially in the Permian Basin. Petro-Logistics has been monitoring seaborne movements both in and out of the lower 48 US states, especially around the US Gulf Coast. Lower light sweets production and a steep contango structure have kept more barrels domestically whilst imports were high despite lower runs as refiners took advantage of ample supply of Middle Eastern and Mexican sour barrels. /blog/posts/focus-on-opec-middle-eastern-compliance/ Thu, 11 Jun 2020 09:48:44 +0000 /blog/posts/focus-on-opec-middle-eastern-compliance/ ]]> The OPEC+ meeting on 6 June decided to extend the May-June 9.7 mb/d cuts by one month. It also foresees that any countries who are unable to reach 100% compliance in May and June will compensate with additional cuts in the period July-September. Petro-Logistics calculates that OPEC achieved a compliance level of roughly 60% in May. Historically, OPEC has relied on a few key countries to carry the weight for the whole Organisation’s curtailment. /blog/posts/how-covid-19-affected-us-oil-balance-slow-response-to-shrinking-demand/ Fri, 01 May 2020 11:25:06 +0000 /blog/posts/how-covid-19-affected-us-oil-balance-slow-response-to-shrinking-demand/ ]]> It was a global shock when the May WTI contract traded at negative levels on 20 April. In the context of a massive lockdown, oil demand in the US has dramatically shrunk, whilst domestic production and imports fail to catch up with the sharp drop in oil consumption, leaving the country with a significant oil overhang and a reluctance for traders to take physical delivery of the barrels as the contract ended. /blog/posts/opec-partners-playing-with-fire/ Thu, 23 Apr 2020 07:01:54 +0000 /blog/posts/opec-partners-playing-with-fire/ ]]> The 178th OPEC meeting in March had dramatic consequences for the oil market, only partially corrected by the 9th joint OPEC-partners meeting in early April. Petro-Logistics extensively covers OPEC countries, their partners and the US Gulf of Mexico and provides clients with detailed insight on changes to oil supply and flows at a crucial time for the market. A look back at OPEC since the beginning First, let’s look back at how the crisis unfolded. /blog/posts/chinese-crude-oil-imports-limited-impact-of-covid-19-4/ Fri, 03 Apr 2020 19:11:21 +0000 /blog/posts/chinese-crude-oil-imports-limited-impact-of-covid-19-4/ ]]> According to Petro-Logistics’ tracking of OPEC, OPEC+ and USA seaborne cargoes, Chinese oil imports have seen a limited fall since the beginning of 2020 and the rise of the Covid-19 pandemic. The initial drop in imports was more consistent with Chinese New Year buying patterns than an effect of confinement measures. A rebound followed and oil imports have recently retraced to average levels. However, China will take advantage of the low-price environment to buy vast quantities of oil for storage and for the restart of its refinery system. /blog/posts/us-exports-2019-another-record-year-for-us-gulf-crude-and-condensate-exports/ Tue, 04 Feb 2020 15:38:09 +0000 /blog/posts/us-exports-2019-another-record-year-for-us-gulf-crude-and-condensate-exports/ ]]> The US achieved a record production of 12.8 mb/d in November 2019, ahead of Saudi Arabia (10.22 mb/d) and Russia (11.25 mb/d) according to the EIA and Petro-Logistics’ own assessment. Since September 2019, the US became a net oil exporter. This is a milestone that the market had been expecting since shale oil production picked up and oil export restrictions were lifted in October 2015. US exports, comprised of 19 different grades, rose to average almost 2. /blog/posts/hormuz-a-vital-artery/ Wed, 15 Jan 2020 13:24:00 +0000 /blog/posts/hormuz-a-vital-artery/ ]]> As tensions in the Middle East rise, talks of a closure by Iran of the Strait of Hormuz are rife in the market. The Strait of Hormuz is a key waterway for crude tankers that carry Middle Eastern grades. Thanks to its detailed and precise database, Petro-Logistics provides clients with a thorough view of the potential impact of such a threat. Some of the key oil producers in the world - Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar - use the Strait of Hormuz to export their crude oil, condensate and petroleum products, relying on this vital passage to the Arabian sea to deliver 93% of their seaborne crude oil exports (15. /blog/posts/venezuela-the-next-step-down/ Thu, 31 Oct 2019 13:02:18 +0000 /blog/posts/venezuela-the-next-step-down/ ]]> Last month’s loadings data shows the lowest volumes since 2003. Whether one observes monthly or moving weekly averages, the results are the same: Loadings fell to unprecedented lows during the tail-end of 3Q 2019. Total loadings of Crude and Syncrude from the Venezuelan mainland averaged 563 kb/d during September, representing a 48% drop from the end of the 2Q when the number ran 909 kb/d. While provisional figures for October show signs of recovery, ongoing production capacity is likely to suffer long-term damage due to the nature of commercial, political, and infrastructural woes plaguing Venezuela. /blog/posts/as-the-dust-settles-in-saudi-arabia/ Tue, 24 Sep 2019 10:15:38 +0000 /blog/posts/as-the-dust-settles-in-saudi-arabia/ ]]> As the dust settles on initial responses to the attacks on Abqaiq and Khurais, the debate is raging around how long the restoration of capacity is going to take. Depending on how “restored” is defined, the various statements, murmurings and analyses range anywhere from a week to 9 months. But while we wait for the engineers and politicians to sort those answers out, the key medium-term impacts for Saudi logistics are becoming clearer. /blog/posts/druzhba-a-friendship-built-to-endure/ Thu, 13 Jun 2019 15:00:00 +0000 /blog/posts/druzhba-a-friendship-built-to-endure/ ]]> Russian crude and condensate exports plummeted 520 kb/d in May (-9.4%). The Druzhba contamination caused pipeline flows to Europe to decrease by 85% m-o-m, with Germany and Poland receiving nothing in May. Seaborne exports increased to multi-year highs; however, they have not been able to fully replace the lost barrels via the 5’500 km Druzhba pipeline, meaning stocks soared for a second month in a row, up 755 kb/d in May alone. /blog/posts/opec-supply-nudges-higher-in-april/ Mon, 29 Apr 2019 15:00:00 +0000 /blog/posts/opec-supply-nudges-higher-in-april/ ]]> After four months of severe decline, both voluntary and involuntary, OPEC supply is nudging higher in April. Structurally improved exports from Nigeria and Iraq are driving the monthly recovery in OPEC supply, while lower volumes from Iran and Saudi Arabia are offsetting increases elsewhere in the group. It is expected that Saudi Arabia will fill the void left by missing Iranian barrels; however, the Kingdom is unlikely to repeat previous mistakes (as witnessed in Q4 2018) of supplying oil to the market in anticipation of the impact of US sanctions. /blog/posts/venezuelan-tanker-activity/ Thu, 11 Apr 2019 15:00:00 +0000 /blog/posts/venezuelan-tanker-activity/ ]]> Petro-Logistics is releasing weekly updates to its clients regarding Venezuelan tanker activity, with daily updates available via our API Data Feed. Each week, an overview of the status of exporting vessels - particularly those in distress - is included, while other topics range from import behaviour to clarifying misinformation from media outlets. This week’s client update (dated 9 April) has been partially shared via this blog post. US Discharges of Cargoes Loaded Prior to Sanctions After a string of ship-to-ship activity, two tankers carrying a combined 1,000 kbbls of Venezuelan crude - the Stena Supreme and the Navigator Spirit - are bound for discharge at the US port of Pascagoula. /blog/posts/russia-to-the-rescue/ Tue, 19 Mar 2019 15:00:00 +0000 /blog/posts/russia-to-the-rescue/ ]]> As Venezuelan fuel supplies dwindle due to domestic turbulence and US sanctions prohibiting exports of vital petrochemicals to the Latin American country, Russian supplies are crossing the Atlantic to fill the gap and ease woes. Five tankers, each chartered by Confidential Company, have loaded gasoline and gasoil at the Baltic port of Ventspils and are bound for destinations in Venezuela. According to Petro-Logistics’ data, the period from 21 February to present marks the highest volume of Russian gasoline imported by Venezuela during a 30 day period and the first direct transfer of Russian gasoil to Venezuela since 2014. /blog/posts/sanctions-on-venezuela-correcting-the-media/ Mon, 11 Mar 2019 15:00:00 +0000 /blog/posts/sanctions-on-venezuela-correcting-the-media/ ]]> Petro-Logistics has prepared numerous client notes since US sanctions were imposed upon Venezuela. As a follow up to our notes released throughout February and early March regarding the impact of US sanctions on Venezuelan crude and upgraded crude oil exports, Petro-Logistics is taking this opportunity to clarify some recent information posted by the news media: The tanker NS Concept has recently been mentioned in media reports claiming that she was turned away after six days of waiting at the port of Houston, whereafter she transferred Venezuelan oil onto the Saudi-owned tanker Ghazal in the Gulf of Mexico. /blog/posts/iranian-exports-review/ Mon, 21 Jan 2019 15:00:00 +0000 /blog/posts/iranian-exports-review/ ]]> Iranian oil exports have trended downwards since President Trump announced a decision on 8 May 2018 to cease US participation in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and to unilaterally begin re-imposing nuclear-related sanctions against Iran. While sanctions relating to finance were fully implemented on 6 August 2018, more severe oil-related sanctions were only imposed as recently as 4 November 2018, since when the decline in Iranian exports has accelerated. /blog/posts/gdpr-something-of-great-importance/ Mon, 28 May 2018 15:00:00 +0000 /blog/posts/gdpr-something-of-great-importance/ ]]> Greetings to our customers, suppliers, employees and colleagues, For nearly 40 years, Petro-Logistics has been a leader in recognizing and practicing the business principles of privacy, protecting personal and confidential information of customers, sources, employees, and other affiliates. When Conrad Gerber started this company in 1980, and ran it until his untimely death, he managed it and insisted upon those principles being a cornerstone of how our business was and is now run. /blog/posts/reimposition-of-us-sanctions-on-iran/ Mon, 14 May 2018 15:00:00 +0000 /blog/posts/reimposition-of-us-sanctions-on-iran/ ]]> This post is a shortened version of a Client Note released to subscribers of our Iran - Crude Oil Exports & Production Analysis package. The full note includes additional tables, graphs and commentary examining various others aspects of Middle Eastern tradeflows. Please contact sales@petro-logistics.com for samples or a complimentary trial. Introduction The US and the European Union imposed sanctions on Iran in 2012 relating to Iran’s nuclear programme that, among many impacts, severely restricted the ability of Iran to export crude oil. /blog/posts/opec-a-prisoners-dilemma-revisited/ Thu, 30 Nov 2017 15:00:00 +0000 /blog/posts/opec-a-prisoners-dilemma-revisited/ ]]> Given the back and forth in the media over the last few weeks about whether OPEC and Russia will or won’t extend their production curtailment agreement, it is worth taking pause to assess exactly what the producer group has achieved over the last year or so since their historic agreement was first implemented. Back in late October last year, in advance of the 30 November 2016 OPEC meeting, we released a Client Note (later published as a blog on our website) titled “OPEC Decision Making: A Game Theory Approach”. /blog/posts/fuzzy-logic/ Wed, 24 May 2017 15:00:00 +0000 /blog/posts/fuzzy-logic/ ]]> Fuzzy logic is an approach to computing based on “degrees of truth” rather than the usual “true or false” (1 or 0) Boolean logic on which modern computers are based. It also appears to be the basis for Russian mathematics associated with their contribution to the current curtailment agreement with OPEC. The following chart built using data from Petro-Logistics’ Russia Crude Oil Production report shows total crude and condensate production by month since 2011. /blog/posts/opec-vs-shale-round-3/ Fri, 12 May 2017 15:00:00 +0000 /blog/posts/opec-vs-shale-round-3/ ]]> It is hard to understate the impact of shale on the oil industry. From initial discovery to first production for a traditional major oil field can take a decade, often longer. US shale oil rose from near zero to five million barrels per day in less than half that time. To put that number in context, it is significantly more than any of the super major oil companies produces today and would place it as the second largest producer in OPEC, behind only Saudi Arabia. /blog/posts/area-under-the-curve/ Tue, 28 Feb 2017 15:00:00 +0000 /blog/posts/area-under-the-curve/ ]]> It is worth taking a moment to look back at the market in mid-September 2016. This is before the September 28th OPEC meeting on the side lines of the IEF in Algiers. It is before the November 30th agreement by OPEC member countries to cut supply by around 1.2 mb/d for the first six months of 2017. And it is before Russia, Oman and other non-OPEC countries agreed on December 10th to cut a further half million barrels per day of production. /blog/posts/opec-you-have-our-attention/ Mon, 23 Jan 2017 15:00:00 +0000 /blog/posts/opec-you-have-our-attention/ ]]> Since the shift from market share to price management was announced in Algiers on September 28, the energy industry has once again been focused keenly on the messages and actions from OPEC and its key members. Rivalries and differences of the past have been put aside, including with key non-OPEC producer Russia. OPEC has also developed a new approach to communication in its attempts to coerce higher prices from the market. /blog/posts/opec-agreement/ Sun, 11 Dec 2016 15:00:00 +0000 /blog/posts/opec-agreement/ ]]> With OPEC having reaffirmed their Algiers commitment to cut production, attention now turns to the details of the agreement and, of course, what actions are actually taken by OPEC and non-OPEC countries to curb production. For now, the market has rewarded the cartel with a Brent oil price that has stabilised around the $50/bbl mark, below the highs achieved in October following the initial Algiers communication, but well above the lows of recent weeks as supply and exports from key OPEC producers and Russia surged to record highs. /blog/posts/opec-decision-making/ Sun, 11 Dec 2016 15:00:00 +0000 /blog/posts/opec-decision-making/ ]]> In advance of OPEC’s November 30 meeting in Vienna, at which they will seek to reach agreement on a production cut to between 32.5 and 33 mbd, it is worth reflecting on historic dynamics in the cartel. The likely outcome is a lack of agreement and a continued supply surplus that will weigh on oil price and structure. OPEC represents a complex version of the classic game theory problem, the prisoner’s dilemma. /blog/posts/will-they-or-wont-they/ Sun, 11 Dec 2016 15:00:00 +0000 /blog/posts/will-they-or-wont-they/ ]]> November 30 will see the 171st Meeting of the Conference of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) take place in Vienna. Pressure has been steadily building for OPEC to take concrete action to back up its September 28 decision in Algiers to target production for OPEC-14 between 32.5 and 33 mb/d, in order to “accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the current stock overhang and bring market rebalancing forward."